Pro Football NFC Wildcard Playoff Sunday Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+3) (4:30PM ET) (FOX)
The Eagles aggressive pass rush is vulnerable to very good rushing teams. Minnesota can run on any down and distance and the Eagles may limit their blitzes because of it. I expect Minnesota to also try and run screens to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to spread out that aggressive Eagle secondary. The Vikings have an outstanding run defense that surrenders only 76 yards per game. When the Eagles cant run they cant win. 63 yards on the ground and a 10-3 loss to the Redskins in week 16 and only 58 yards on the ground in their first meeting that resulted in a loss back in October. 86 yards rushing and a 36-7 loss to Baltimore. 68 yards rushing and a 13-13 tie to Cincinnati. This is where the Eagles lack of a #1 wide receiver hurts them. When they are in obvious passing downs due to lack of success on the ground McNabb must wait and wait for his receiver corps to get open and that results in hurried throws. Things will be very loud inside the dome and passing will be very difficult with the Eagles in those conditions. The Vikings can pin their ears back and put heavy pressure on McNabb to much success here. Jared Allen and company will blanket him. Take Minnesota inside their home dome at +3
Pro Football AFC Wildcard Playoffs Sunday Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+3) (1PM ET) (CBS)
This is a bad matchup for the Dolphins. Chad Pennington’s lack of arm strength means he cannot stretch that Ravens pass defense and he will find things awfully tough completing balls downfield. This also allows the Ravens quick defenders to pick him off. The Dolphins had no success running on Baltimore in their first matchup and the Ravens only allow an average of 81 yards per game rushing. So in obvious passing downs the Ravens will force stops. The Dolphins secondary is not strong as they sit in the bottom 25% in the league in pass defense. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco wont be asked to win the game with running backs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee opening things up for him in the passing game. Flacco has been very sharp and efficient to close the season and has shown much more confidence and improvement under center. Your Best Bet for Sunday NFL is taking the Baltimore Ravens –3 against the Miami Dolphins.
Pro Football AFC Wildcard Playoff Saturday Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1) (8PM ET) (NBC)
San Diego qualified in the playoffs as AFC West Champions going 8-8 and 5-1 against a weak AFC West Division. San Diego in their 4 game winning streak to close the season beat Oakland, Kansas City and Denver from their division. And in week 16 they traveled to Tampa Bay and played a team who’s wheels completely fell off on the defensive end. So winning 4 in a row was impressive but none of those wins came against playoff teams. An injury concern for the Chargers as Ladainian Tomlinson is sporting a sore groin and may not be 100% on Sunday. LT only averaged 3.8 yards per attempt this season and when he was nicked up earlier in the season LT averaged less than 3 yards per attempt. Indy has a very strong pass defense ranking 5th in the league giving up 188 yards per game. The Chargers will need to have some success on the ground and LT may not deliver not being 100% in this game. The Colts are hot winners of 9 in a row beating 3 playoff teams in that span. Peyton Manning during that span has passed for 17 TD’s with only 3 picks. And the Colts pass defense allowed only 3 passing touchdowns during that span. The Chargers have issues getting pressure on the quarterback and Peyton Manning will have time in the pocket to work those weak Chargers safeties and pass defense that allows nearly 250 yards on the season. The Colts went 5-1 against playoff teams and San Diego 0-5 straight up against playoff teams this season. The game comes down to Indy making more stops than the Chargers. Take Indy –1.
Pro Football NFC Wildcard Playoff Saturday Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 51) (4:30PM ET) (NBC)
The question in this game is whether or not the Falcon defense can stop the passing tandem of Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. I don’t believe so. Arizona is explosive offensively at home averaging nearly 30 points per game at home. When we look at the Falcons defense against explosive offenses we saw New Orleans put up nearly 950 total yards in their two meetings. Green Bay and Philadelphia amounted over 400 in total yards. And Carolina over 400 in both meetings. Arizona will be able to move the ball up and down the field against the Falcons. Now can Arizona stop Atlanta’s balanced offense? I don’t think so. Arizona is 0-4 against NFC playoff teams this season and has been lit up on the scoreboard. Minnesota put up 35, Philadelphia 48, the Giants 37 and Carolina 27. With two outstanding offenses on the field and two defenses that sit in the bottom third in the league in pass defense this game points to one thing, a shootout in the desert. Take Arizona and Atlanta over 51.
Pro Football Sunday Miami Dolphins at NY Jets (-3) (4:15PM ET) (CBS)
The Miami defense surrendered nearly 500 yards to the Chiefs last week. Tyler Thigpen threw for 312 yards last week as the Dolphins survived. That’s now 5 opponents who have passed for over 300 yards against Miami with 4 of those games being on the road. Bret Favre and company should be licking their chops to get at this Dolphin secondary. The Jets are taking a lot of heat in the media over the poor performance last week at Seattle and look for adjustments. Favre will have a much better game at home passing against the weak Dolphin’s secondary. The crowd will be electric and it will be a playoff atmosphere making it tough for the Dolphins on offense. The Jets know Miami quarterback Chad Pennington very well and know how to defend him. The Jets allow only 92 yards rushing on defense and after all this drama last week still only gave up 13 to Seattle. The Jets have ran the ball well this season and are averaging 5.1 yards per attempt over the past 4 games. The Jets will go back to power football with success on the ground and it will open up things for Favre against the Dolphin secondary. Your Best Bet for Sunday NFL is taking the NY Jets –3 against the Miami Dolphins.
The winner of this game will win the AFC West and host Indy next week in the wildcard playoff round. When San Diego brings their A game performance they can beat anyone. But will they? They have been inconsistent all season and their secondary has been torched. San Diego benefited by Jeff Garcia’s lack of arm strength last week. Jay Cutler’s arm can stretch the field and he can give the Chargers fits on defense. LT has had a poor year on the season and may not be able to exploit the weak Broncos’ run defense. Denver has won 3 of their past 4 road games with victories over the Jets and Falcons. In a divisional game 9 points is too much to lay. Denver is not a dead playoff eliminated team here. Denver is now in a win or lose situation and we will get a close game decided by a touchdown or less. Take Denver +9.
Pro Football Best Bet Sunday Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2) (4:15PM ET) (FOX)
There is a pretty good chance that Philadelphia will be eliminated from playoff contention when this game kicks off. When Tampa Bay beats Oakland in the early game the Eagles season is over. It was a deflating loss by the Eagles scoring only 3 points against Washington last week and the effects will be felt in this contest. As I said last week the Eagles wide receivers are not top tier and we saw horrid play from that unit. The team paid the price for not acquiring a top-flight wide receiver during the offseason. The Eagles did not run Westbrook much the past 2 weeks and it wouldn’t surprise me if he sits should this game becomes meaningless by kickoff. Westbrook has a bum knee and has been listed as questionable. In the past 2 weeks Westbrook has carried the ball 28 times for only 98 yards. Westbrook is the workhorse for this team and it makes no sense in putting that knee at risk in a meaningless game. Westbrook is too important to this franchise. Philadelphia doesn’t care about Tampa Bay missing the playoffs and should rather protect their star running back from further damage to his is knee. The Cowboys gave up 265 yards to Baltimore last week and 200 to the Giants back on November 2nd. With Westbrook not 100% Philadelphia will not put up these numbers on the Cowboys. The Eagles were just 3 of 14 on third downs last week. With the Tampa Bay scenario playing out in the early game the Cowboys win and they make the playoffs. So we have a live team getting 2 points facing a dead one. The Cowboys are explosive enough to put
points on the board and the Eagles offense is not the same with Westbrook hampered by his sore knee plus factor in the scenario playing out in Tampa that most likely will kick him to the bench. Take Dallas +2.
Pro Football Sunday New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+6.5) (1PM ET) (CBS)
There is no quit in these Buffalo Bills. It was an impressive offensive performance at Denver last week and Trent Edwards played mistake free football. Edwards did lift the Bills returning to the lineup from a sore groin. New England pounded Arizona last week because they ran all over them. Buffalo is tough to run against and things will be a lot tougher for Matt Cassell in Buffalo facing passing situations on third down. 6 ½ points too much to give Buffalo here in a divisional game with Buffalo still playing hard. Take Buffalo +6 ½.
Pro Football Best Bet Sunday Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3) (4:15PM ET) (FOX)
Minnesota has an outstanding rushing defense. They allow a mere 71 yards per game on the ground. Falcon running back Michael Turner has had a good year running the football. But Turner has run against 2 good rushing defenses this season that allow less than 100 yards per game. This is how he did. Against Philadelphia 58 yards on 17 carries a mere 3.4 yards per attempt. Against Chicago only 54 yards on 25 attempts a minuscule 2.2 yards per attempt. Minnesota’s rushing defense is much better than the Bears and Eagles. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan will face down and distance against a fierce pass rush from the Vikings and that wont bode well for the Falcons. Minnesota’s offense looks good with Adrian Peterson and Tavaris Jackson looked pretty good last week. The key here is that Minnesota’s defense will keep the Falcons from engineering long drives allowing their offense to run to victory over the Falcons and wear them out in the 4th quarter. Your Best Bet for Sunday NFL is taking the Minnesota Vikings –3 against the Atlanta Falcons.
Pro Football Sunday Carolina Panthers at NY Giants (O/U 37 1/2) (8:15PM ET) (NBC)
This game will determine home field throughout the playoffs. We are looking a bad weather in Giants Stadium and that will take away the deep pass and hamper Steve Smith’s impact in this game. I see this both teams trying to run the ball in this contest and it will be a game of field position. Without Plaxico Burress in the lineup the Giants will have to get by with short throws. This speeds up the game and works clock and keeps the chains moving. Time of possession will be crucial in this game because if the Giants can keep the Panthers offense off the field they can grind out a victory and preserve it late with the run. Panthers head coach John Fox is conservative by nature and in big games. He will resort back to those ways in this big game and lean on his defense and field position to stay in this game. With the Giants limited offensively Fox does not want to put Jake Delhomme in a position where he will make critical mistakes. This game is too important. Both offenses will play not to lose the game with mistakes and that points to a dead solid under in this contest. Play NY Giants and Carolina Panthers under 37 ½.
