College Football Rose Bowl Penn St Nittany Lions versus USC Trojans (O/U 45) January 1st (5PM ET) (ABC)
Two great defenses face off in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Of course USC is getting all the publicity but hey Penn St is pretty good. Both teams stop the run as they allow less than 100 yards per game on the ground. USC struggled for points against the better defenses from the Pac 10. The Trojans put up only 17 against Cal and Arizona and 21 against Oregon St. Each game went well under the total. Now Joe Paterno has had great defensive efforts in his past bowl games. In Penn St’s past 6 bowl games they have allowed teams to score 17 points or less in 5 of them. The most scored on this team was just 23 points in that span. Defense will prevail in this game in what will be a low scoring Rose Bowl. Play Penn St and USC under 45.
College Football Capital One Bowl Michigan St Spartans versus Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5) January 1st (1PM ET) (ABC)
This is not where Georgia expected to be to start the season as many had the Bulldogs behind a senior quarterback and star running back playing in a BSC Bowl. Last year we saw the Florida Gators fail here 41-38 against Michigan in the 2007 Bowl Season’s most unlikely result. Michigan St is happy to play on New Years Day following a 9-3 season. Their best season since 1999. Georgia has failed to cover 4 straight pointspread and their disappointment from SEC conference play was evident in their performance against Georgia Tech to close the regular season. This game usually enters the #3 team from the SEC as the top 2 teams usually play in a BCS Bowl. Listen to this stat. Underdog Big 10 teams have won and covered the past 4 Capital One Bowls. Senior running back Javon Ringer has rushed the ball for nearly 1400 yards on the season. Georgia has not played good defense and this game sets up as another Big 10 team facing a disappointed participant. Take the motivated Michigan St +7.5
College Football Gator Bowl Clemson Tigers versus Nebraksa Cornhuskers (+2.5) January 1st (1PM ET) (CBS)
Both teams enter the Gator form with good late season form with Clemson winning four of their last five and Nebraska 5 of 6. But Nebraska has played 5 bowl teams from BCS conferences and was only able to beat one team and that was a Kansas team, which plays awful defense. Clemson is the better defensive team and they limited their last opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in each game. Clemson has responded well since the coaching change and will be motivated to play for head coach Dabo Swinney. Clemson will get more stops in this game and they are the right side here. Take Clemson –2 1/.2.
College Football Outback Bowl Iowa Hawkeyes versus South Carolina Gamecocks (O/U 42 1/2) January 1st (11AM ET) (ESPN)
We have two solid defenses in the Outback Bowl as Iowa allows 13 points per game and South Carolina 20. We will see if defense can hold form after the long layoff between the end of the regular season and New Year’s Day. This can be tough because it’s hard to simulate real game speed during practices when you are not going all out. Iowa are winners of 5 of their past 6 with the over going 5-1 in that stretch. Iowa is balanced on offense as they rushed for over 200 yards in 4 of they’re past 6 games. Steve Spurrier said he would take a more relaxed approach to this bowl game. It’s being held in a good weather site and I expect Spurrier to open up his offense enough to push this total over. This wont be a ball control type of game plan we see usually from Spurrier in conference play. Play Iowa and South Carolina over 42 ½.
College Football Chick Fil A Bowl LSU Tigers versus Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4) (7:30PM ET) (ESPN)
Georgia Tech’s strength is their triple option running game and LSU has a solid front four and a defense that allows only 105 yards per game on the ground. Georgia Tech was able to beat rival Georgia from the SEC on the last regular season game of the season but Georgia’s defense was not very good this year. I feel LSU has an advantage playing Georgia Tech with enough time to prepare for the triple option. If this were a regular season game and only 1 week between opponents LSU might be in a bit tougher here. Even though many of the LSU players haven’t seen this style offense since their high school playing days they are good enough athletically to defend it. Georgia Tech gave up 29 points per game in their final 5 games and LSU has weapons offensively. The Tigers are led by running back Charles Scott had over 1100 yards rushing on the season. Teams beat up LSU through the air on the season and the Yellow Jackets aren’t very strong in that area passing for only an average of 95 yards per game. This matchup is favorable for the Tigers. Take LSU +4.
College Football Insight Bowl Minnesota Gophers versus Kansas Jayhawks (-9) December 31st (6PM ET) (NFL Network)
Minnesota has dropped 4 straight games to close the season. Minnesota really struggles offensively as they rank 92nd nationally in total offense. The Gophers were held to 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. Kansas comes from the powerful Big 12 Conference and had a brutal schedule this season. 4 of the team’s losses came against Nebraska, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Kansas finished the season with an impressive 40-37 victory over Missouri. Jayhawk quarterback Todd Ressing is a very capable passer throwing for over 3500 yards and completing 65% of his passes. He had 342 passing yards against BCS Championship bound Oklahoma this season. Play the favorite in this one over a team floundering late. Take Kansas –9.
College Football Music City Bowl Boston College Eagles versus Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5) December 31st (3:30PM ET) (ESPN)
BC has won 9 straight bowl games. Vanderbilt will struggle for offense in this contest as the team only averages 260 yards per game on offense and will face a good rushing defense from BC that gives up only 92 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt finished the year 1-6 to close the year. BC has impressive regular season victories over Florida St, Maryland, Virginia Tech and NC State. 10 of 12 Boston College opponents are bowl bound this season. BC has been challenged and fished with 9 wins on the season. Cant back a team losing 6 of 7 entering a bowl game even if the location is favorable. Take Boston College –3 ½.
College Football Armed Forces Bowl Air Force Falcons at Houston Cougars (-3 1/2) December 31st (12PM ET) (ESPN)
These teams met in September with Air Force winning 31-28 on a neutral field after Hurricane Ike forced the game to be moved to SMU. Air Force sports a strong running attack that goes up against the weak Cougar rush defense. Air Force averages 268 yards on the ground and Houston gives up 170 yards per game on the ground. The spot favors the Falcons here as they can keep the explosive Cougars passing offense iced on the sidelines by controlling time of possession. In their first meeting Air Force ran 71 times for 380 yards and ran out the clock for the 3-point victory. Houston is 102 out of 119 teams defensively and I cannot back them here against a Mountain West opponent. Take Air Force +3 ½.
College Football Alamo Bowl Northwestern Wildcats versus Missouri Tigers (O/U 65) December 29th (8PM ET) (ESPN)
Chase Daniel and the explosive Missouri Tigers offense face Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. Missouri averaged 43 points per game this season and nearly 500 yards a game. Northwestern playing the Big 10 is not very familiar playing against teams running the spread offense. Northwestern likes to run the ball but to keep up with the Missouri scoring they will need to pass a lot more in this game. Missouri’s pass defense is extremely weak and we will be in for a shootout in San Antonio. This game is in a dome on a fast track. Play Northwestern and Missouri over 65.
College Football PapaJohns.com Bowl North Carolina St Wolfpack versus Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-7.5) Monday December 29th (3PM ET) (ESPN)
Rutgers has been a hot team to close the season. After a 1-5 start to the season the Scarlet Knights ran off 5 straight victories to close at 7-5. They have punished teams down the stretch led by explosive offensive output and solid defense. An impressive victory were the 54 points they put on Sun Bowl bound Pitt. QB Mike Teel has rebounded nicely after a very shaky beginning to the season to lead Rutgers to a 63-14 win against Louisville passing for 447 yards and 7 TD passes. NC State quarterback Russell Wilson completes about 55% of his passes but is a freshman starting in his first bowl game. Rutgers play on both the offensive and defensive lines improved dramatically and will be the reason to back them in this spot. Rutgers has averaged 40 points per game during their 6 game winning streak powered by the play of their O Line. Lets continue to ride Rutgers here against a Freshman starting at QB for the Wolfpack. Take Rutgers –7 ½.
