College Football GMAC Bowl January 6th Ball St Cardinals versus Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+2.5) (8PM ET) (ESPN)
We have two explosive offenses meeting up in Mobile Alabama for the GMAC Bowl. Tulsa averages 47 points per game while Ball ST 36. Total offense Ball St 459 yards a game and Tulsa 565. As both offenses are explosive there is a clear-cut better defense here and that belongs to Ball St. The Cardinals only give up an average of 18 points per game. Tulsa faced a very soft schedule early and punished the bad defenses of SMU, UAB, Rice, UTEP, Tulane and North Texas to really pad those offensive stats. But when they faced Arkansas they only put up 23 points and only 24 in the Conference USA Title game in their home stadium to East Carolina. Ball St’s loss to Buffalo in the MAC Championship was marred by mistakes and that’s something that the Cardinal’s avoided making most of the season. The Buffalo game was an aberration. Ball St quarterback Nate Davis hit on 66% of his passes this season with 26 TD’s and only 7 interceptions. Cardinals running back MiQuale Lewis had 1700 rushing yards and 22 TD’s on the season. His 5.6 yards per rushing attempt is key to the Cardinals balance on offense. Behind an outstanding offense and a defense that will get more stops take Ball St –2 ½.
College Football Fiesta Bowl Ohio St Buckeyes versus Texas Longhorns (-8 ½) January 5th (8:15PM ET)(FOX)
Ohio St has not had good bowls the past two years losing to Florida 41-14 two years ago and 38-24 last year. Ohio St versus 2 BCS Bowl teams this season put up only 3 to USC and 6 to Penn St. Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy had an outstanding season hitting on 77% of his passes for over 3400 yards and 32 TD’s. McCoy’s accuracy will be key in this game as the Longhorns offense will move the ball effectively and maintain possession of the football. Note the game is being played in Glendale Arizona the home of the Arizona Cardinals so we will have a fast track which allows Texas to take full advantage of their speed and quickness. Terrelle Pryor has been inconsistent at quarterback for the Buckeyes and running back Beanie Wells has been hampered by injuries on the season. With the Longhorns explosive offense it will force Ohio St to play a game of comeback behind Pryor and that will not bode well for the Buckeyes. Ohio St’s defense will be on the field quite a bit in this game and will wear down giving us the cover in this one. Take Texas –8 ½.
Pro Football NFC Wildcard Playoff Sunday Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+3) (4:30PM ET) (FOX)
The Eagles aggressive pass rush is vulnerable to very good rushing teams. Minnesota can run on any down and distance and the Eagles may limit their blitzes because of it. I expect Minnesota to also try and run screens to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to spread out that aggressive Eagle secondary. The Vikings have an outstanding run defense that surrenders only 76 yards per game. When the Eagles cant run they cant win. 63 yards on the ground and a 10-3 loss to the Redskins in week 16 and only 58 yards on the ground in their first meeting that resulted in a loss back in October. 86 yards rushing and a 36-7 loss to Baltimore. 68 yards rushing and a 13-13 tie to Cincinnati. This is where the Eagles lack of a #1 wide receiver hurts them. When they are in obvious passing downs due to lack of success on the ground McNabb must wait and wait for his receiver corps to get open and that results in hurried throws. Things will be very loud inside the dome and passing will be very difficult with the Eagles in those conditions. The Vikings can pin their ears back and put heavy pressure on McNabb to much success here. Jared Allen and company will blanket him. Take Minnesota inside their home dome at +3
Pro Football AFC Wildcard Playoffs Sunday Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+3) (1PM ET) (CBS)
This is a bad matchup for the Dolphins. Chad Pennington’s lack of arm strength means he cannot stretch that Ravens pass defense and he will find things awfully tough completing balls downfield. This also allows the Ravens quick defenders to pick him off. The Dolphins had no success running on Baltimore in their first matchup and the Ravens only allow an average of 81 yards per game rushing. So in obvious passing downs the Ravens will force stops. The Dolphins secondary is not strong as they sit in the bottom 25% in the league in pass defense. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco wont be asked to win the game with running backs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee opening things up for him in the passing game. Flacco has been very sharp and efficient to close the season and has shown much more confidence and improvement under center. Your Best Bet for Sunday NFL is taking the Baltimore Ravens –3 against the Miami Dolphins.
Pro Football AFC Wildcard Playoff Saturday Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1) (8PM ET) (NBC)
San Diego qualified in the playoffs as AFC West Champions going 8-8 and 5-1 against a weak AFC West Division. San Diego in their 4 game winning streak to close the season beat Oakland, Kansas City and Denver from their division. And in week 16 they traveled to Tampa Bay and played a team who’s wheels completely fell off on the defensive end. So winning 4 in a row was impressive but none of those wins came against playoff teams. An injury concern for the Chargers as Ladainian Tomlinson is sporting a sore groin and may not be 100% on Sunday. LT only averaged 3.8 yards per attempt this season and when he was nicked up earlier in the season LT averaged less than 3 yards per attempt. Indy has a very strong pass defense ranking 5th in the league giving up 188 yards per game. The Chargers will need to have some success on the ground and LT may not deliver not being 100% in this game. The Colts are hot winners of 9 in a row beating 3 playoff teams in that span. Peyton Manning during that span has passed for 17 TD’s with only 3 picks. And the Colts pass defense allowed only 3 passing touchdowns during that span. The Chargers have issues getting pressure on the quarterback and Peyton Manning will have time in the pocket to work those weak Chargers safeties and pass defense that allows nearly 250 yards on the season. The Colts went 5-1 against playoff teams and San Diego 0-5 straight up against playoff teams this season. The game comes down to Indy making more stops than the Chargers. Take Indy –1.
Pro Football NFC Wildcard Playoff Saturday Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 51) (4:30PM ET) (NBC)
The question in this game is whether or not the Falcon defense can stop the passing tandem of Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. I don’t believe so. Arizona is explosive offensively at home averaging nearly 30 points per game at home. When we look at the Falcons defense against explosive offenses we saw New Orleans put up nearly 950 total yards in their two meetings. Green Bay and Philadelphia amounted over 400 in total yards. And Carolina over 400 in both meetings. Arizona will be able to move the ball up and down the field against the Falcons. Now can Arizona stop Atlanta’s balanced offense? I don’t think so. Arizona is 0-4 against NFC playoff teams this season and has been lit up on the scoreboard. Minnesota put up 35, Philadelphia 48, the Giants 37 and Carolina 27. With two outstanding offenses on the field and two defenses that sit in the bottom third in the league in pass defense this game points to one thing, a shootout in the desert. Take Arizona and Atlanta over 51.
College Football International Bowl Buffalo Bulls versus Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) January 3rd (12PM ET) (ESPN2)
Buffalo was the unlikely winner of the MAC Championship and plays UCONN in Toronto for the International Bowl. The Bulls beat Ball St a 12-0 team during the MAC title game by dominating the second half of that ball game. UCONN lost 5 of their last 7 games and ended the season 5th in the Big East. UCONN has struggled big time at the quarterback position as Tyler Lorenzen and Zach Frazier combined for 4 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The Bulls have a good offense that averaged 31 points and 380 yards per game. They are also a perfect 7-0 against the spread as an underdog this season. UCONN did beat Cincinnati at home but quarterback Tony Pike was rusty and it was his first game back off an injury. You have to respect Buffalo’s last performance against Ball and they are the right side in this contest over the Huskies. Take Buffalo +4 ½.
College Football Sugar Bowl Utah Utes versus Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) January 2nd (8PM ET) (ABC)
The SEC has defended its turf well in this contest. They are 6-1 straight up in the past 7 Sugar Bowl games. Utah earned a spot here off a perfect season and Alabama was a 1-loss team falling to Florida in the title game. With the early polls it’s very important for Alabama to get a win in order to secure a nice ranking when the preseason polls come out in August. So there is motivation for Alabama to win and win big much like Georgia disposed of Hawaii last year. Alabama has a size and strength advantage on their offensive line. The Tide linemen have a 70-weight advantage over the Utes. Behind that mass Tide running back Glen Coffee will have a big game. And with Bama having success running it will open up big plays for John Parker Wilson the Tides senior quarterback in the passing game. People talk about Utah having speed on defense well everyone has speed on defense in the SEC. Nick Saban has set winning the Sugar Bowl an important crown to a 12-1 season. Alabama kicks off the 2009 season September 5th against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome. There will be tons of hype surrounding that game. Saban wants to send out his seniors on top and just as important position his 2009 team very well in the preseason rankings. You see the SEC coaches get it. Alabama will not allow for Utah to go back West with a morale victory. It will be a sound defeat. Alabama will pound Utah. Take Alabama –10.
East Carolina Pirates versus Kentucky Wildcats College Football Odds and Pick Gamblers Television
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College Football Liberty Bowl East Carolina Pirates versus Kentucky Wildcats (+2 1/2) January 2nd (5PM ET) (ESPN)
Kentucky is a cold team entering the Liberty Bowl losers of 6 of their past 8 games and are very fortunate to be playing in a bowl game. And both of those wins came by a measly 1 point against Mississippi St and Arkansas. Non Bowl teams and down programs. The Wildcats were 0-5 versus Bowl teams this season. 3 wins this season for Kentucky came against Norfolk St, Middle Tennessee St and Western Kentucky. What an poor resume for a bowl team. East Carolina are winners of 6 of their past 7 games. In the Conference USA Title game they held explosive Tulsa to only 24 points on their home field. Kentucky will start backup QB Mike Hartline who lost his job with poor performace. He gets his job back after starting quarterback Randall Cobb went under the knife with a knee surgery and was lost for the bowl game. East Carolina has wins over bowl bound West Virginia and Virginia Tech on the season. They have good balance on offense and give up only an average of 20 points per game. You can’t back Kentucky in this game. Take East Carolina –2 ½.
College Football Cotton Bowl Mississippi Rebels versus Texas Tech Red Raiders January 2nd (O/U 69) (2PM ET) (FOX)
Head coach Mike Leach has won 5 of his past 6 bowl games at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders completed a successful regular season campaign finishing at 11-1. Don’t look for the Red Raiders to be flat here. They have been good in their previous bowl games. Both squads are explosive offensively as Tech averages 44 a game and Ole Miss 30. The Rebels put up 45 on Mississippi St and 31 at LSU to close the season. This is a different program since Houston Nutt took it over, as it was a program in the past was all defense and no offense. It will be difficult for Ole Miss to stop this high-powered offense from Texas Tech. The Cotton Bowl is a game with huge tradition and its played in the state of Texas. So I don’t expect any letdown from the Red Raiders from missing out on a BCS Bowl berth playing in their home state on January 2nd. With the Red Raiders explosive offense Ole Miss will put the ball in the air to keep up on the scoreboard. What will transpire will be a shootout here. Play Texas Tech and Mississippi over 69.
